24-hour watch

A few quick Oscar predictions:

1) Jon Stewart will look less nervous than he did two years ago.

2) Best Actor: This is the closest to a shoe-in, if you ask me or just about anybody. What is it with all the bouquets for Day-Lewis this time? Has he just reached that age where as a British Actor he qualifies for worship? A few years ago, with Bill the Butcher in Gangs of New York, he was viewed as kind of crazy. Maybe it was just the character, but there were also all these rumors about how he was found making shoes in Florence or something (which he actually did take up for a few months, apparently). This character is not less frightening, but the movie's being better received, and so is the man himself after his quite dignified Heath Ledger tribute at the SAG awards. I think it's in the (gift) bag.

3) Best Actress: You know, I just don't know enough about the Academy to call this one. Kind of like two years ago when it surfaced afterwards that power players and academy voters had been making all kinds of homophobic remarks about Brokeback Mountain. So much for liberal, open-minded Hollywood. Anyway, here it's probably veteran Julie Christie, fresh face Ellen Page, or lovely foreigner Marion Cotillard. I'm inclined to say Christie, but I'm really not sure. I really thought Ellen Page's nomination was her award, but I hear that there's buzz for her...

4) Best Picture: Eh... No Country, probably, though I'm going to wait to call it as the night goes on. Again, referring back to the Crash surprise, I thought I could see that one coming because awards were peeling off and going in scattered directions all night (Memoirs of a Geisha picked up three Oscars. Three. That's as many as Brokeback).

5) Ryan Seacrest will be everywhere.

6) Not seeing any love or opportunity for Atonement, unless it's for Best Cinematography for the Big Tracking Shot. I'm sure its stars will be presenting something or other. I sure hope it doesn't win Best Score. It wouldn't kill me if it won Best Costume Design, though I am a little tired of the media going on about Keira Knightley's green dress. It was a beautiful dress, yes, move on.

7) Poor Joe Wright didn't get nominated for Best Director, either. I'll go with the Coen brothers here.

That's enough. Not feeling a ton of energy for these awards, though as always, I look forward to Stewart. And pretty dresses. Let us hope that the Heath Ledger mentions are few, short, and tasteful.